SpillMap.ca · TMX Dilbit Spill — Impact Scenario Explorer

1 · Where

Spill source

Accident type

2 · How big

Spill size

Tanker class

ⓘ Where could a VLCC actually load? (Burrard Inlet vs Roberts Bank)

Burrard Inlet stays Aframax-only. The Second Narrows dredging (from Sept 2026) lets today's Aframax tankers load more fully (past the current ~80%) — the port authority is explicit it "will not change the number or size of the largest vessel type… Aframax-class tankers will remain the largest vessels." Bridge air-draft (Second Narrows twice per trip, plus Lions Gate), channel depth and the Aframax-built Westridge berths rule out Suezmax/VLCC there; a fully laden VLCC draws ~20–22 m.

But VLCCs on the South Coast are now a live proposal. The 2026 Alberta southern-route pipeline plan (Bruderheim → Delta) would terminate at a new Roberts Bank crude terminal beside Deltaport/RBT2, with two offshore berths for Very Large Crude Carriers of ~1.9–2.2 million barrels each — open-strait berths with no bridge or narrows constraint. Select the “Roberts Bank / Deltaport approach” spill source and the VLCC ~2M class to model exactly that scenario. Sources in the research brief §2.

Pipeline throughput

3 · Conditions

Season

Time of day

Wind regime Wind speed

Sea state

4 · Water & tide

Tide state

Tidal phase

Storm surge Fraser River flow

Pipeline corridor Tanker route Oil on water Benzene / VOC plume Wind → plume drift Tidal current (flood/ebb) Net slick drift

◔ How likely? — spill probability & return period

—return period for a spill ≥ this size

—annual probability

—over 50 yr of operation

Project lifetime 50 yr